ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRI CITIES RETAIL SALES REPORT, THE RETAILING PICTURE REMAINED CHAOTIC DURING THE THIRD QUARTER OF THE YEAR. FOR THE FIFTH QUARTER IN A ROW, BRISTOL LED IN RETAIL GROWTH WITH DOLLAR SALES GROWING ALMOST 9=PER CENT TO 292 MILLION DOLLARS. JOHNSON CITY SALES WERE UP 6.4 PERCENT, WHILE KINGSPORT SAW SALES DROP 4-PER CENT. EAST TENNESSEE STATE UNIVERISTY ECONOMIST DR. STEP HIPPLE SAYS THE NUMBERS SHOW THE LOCAL MARKET IS IN A PERIOD OF TRANSITION. IN TENNESSEE AS A WHOLE, THE GROWTH IN RETAIL VOLUME IN THE THIRD QUARTER WAS CLOSE TO ZERO. SO DR. HIPPLE BELIEVES A PATTERN OF CAUTION WILL CONTINUE ON INTO 2008 PARTICULARY SINCE EVEN THE MOST OPTIMISTIC FORECASTS CALL FOR ONLY MODEST GROWTH OF ONE TO TWO PERCENT FOR NEXT YEAR. SOME ANALYSTS ENVISION A MILD NATIONAL RECESSION